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Mauritania
This country is part of the area of ​​competence of the following site: Ivory Coast
Summary: after two years of a very difficult economic situation, the Mauritanian economy appears to be able to move from a phase of maintaining the equilibrium to that of supporting economic growth whose main objectives are job creation and sustainability of the economy. debt. In the long term, favorable prospects are emerging, essentially related to the development of hydrocarbons.
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The Mauritanian economy has just gone through two years of very difficult economic times. Favorable since 2009, the trajectory of its macroeconomic framework experienced a sharp break in 2015. Superior for the third consecutive year at 5% in 2014 [1], the annual growth rate of GDP was only 2% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016. According to the IMF, it should know a slight rebound in 2017 (+ 3.8%). This evolution is mainly due to the collapse of world oil prices [2] and iron (the iron ton fell from 135.4 USD in 2013 to 96.8 USD in 2014, to 55.2 USD in 2015 and 43 USD in 2016) which remain the main Mauritanian productions and exports alongside fishery products [3]. Since the beginning of 2017, the Mauritanian economy has benefited from the recovery of world prices of the iron ton, which can occasionally exceed 70 USD but whose annual average should not exceed 36 USD in 2017 (IMF projections). Inflation remains contained (+ 1.5% in 2016 and + 3.6% in 2017) thanks to lower world food prices than expected. The external current account deficit, which benefited from lower oil prices (a product representing 20% ​​of the country's imports and whose oil price fell from USD 104 in 2012 to USD 35 in 2016 [4]), is estimated at 19% of GDP. As of December 31, 2016, public and publicly guaranteed Mauritanian debt represents 94% of GDP. At the end of April 2017, the foreign exchange reserves amounted to 790 MUSD (6 months of imports excluding extractive industries). Fragile, the financial system remains dominated by banks [5], mainly oriented towards the short term, and insurance companies (12 insurance companies and two pension funds). The interbank foreign exchange market remains non-existent.
This should not obscure a cycle of several consecutive years of strong economic performance. Since the mid-1990s, the Mauritanian economy has indeed characteristics of favorable growth and development, whether in terms of GDP [6], GDP / inhabitants, inflation or gradual diversification of its economy [7]. This allows it to remain attractive for investors, especially since the country has benefited since March 2017 from a more favorable secure zoning (link). Favorable prospects are also emerging in the medium and long term, mainly related to major gas discoveries (Ahmeyim gas field) off the coasts of Mauritania (10 TCF) and Senegal (15 TCF). Investment decisions are expected in 2018 with the objective announced by the operators concerned (BP associated since December 2016 with the US junior Kosmos Energy who discovered Ahmeyim) a production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) by 2021. Better taken into account by the Mauritanian authorities, the diversification of their economy potentially offers other opportunities in the ICT, agriculture, livestock, new energies and cross-sectoral sectors of the environment and energy. the transformation. Finally, it is important to take into account a sizeable regional dimension, Mauritania being, with its two ports (Nouadhibou, Nouakchott) an entry / exit gate for its neighbors, particularly from the East, with whom it strives to strengthen its trade [8] ./.
[1] GDP growth rate: 2012 (5.8%), 2013 (6.4%) and 2014 (6.6%).
[2] Mauritania has only one field in production: Chinguetti (offshore). At the end of its life, it must be closed at the end of 2017.
[3] The country has two fisheries agreements, including the one with the European Union (annual contribution of 57.5 M € to the Mauritanian budget).
[4] Price per barrel of oil (USD): 2012 (105), 2013 (104.1), 2014 (96.2), 2015 (50.8), 2016 (34.8) and (projection) 2017 ( 41).
[5] The sector today has 25 banks for a narrow market. In 2017 (IMF) the country has 4.1 million inhabitants, GDP per capita is 1300 USD. It should be 1360 USD in 2022. The rate of banking remains low (6%). Finally, since 2012, it must be emphasized that all the banking licenses granted were to Islamic banks.
[6] Mauritanian GDP 2007: 2.8 billion USD. Year 2015: USD 4.1 billion. Forecast 2016 at 6.4 billion USD and 2020 at 4 billion USD (IMF).
[7] The sectoral distribution of GDP 2014 is as follows: primary (21%), secondary (34.5%), tertiary (39.1%) and other (5.4%, administrations).

[8] Mauritania, which signed an association agreement with the Cédeao in May 2017, is invited by the latter to finalize its approach by submitting a request for full membership.

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