economic, commercial and financial
matters. He prepares and coordinates the organization of official visits of an
economic nature, offers support to French companies in the approach of the
Iranian market (support for major projects, monitoring of financing) and leads,
with its partners, the Bureau Business France of Tehran , the Foreign Trade
Advisers of France and the France Iran Chamber of Commerce and Industry,
Bilateral Economic Relations.
While most of the European sanctions
against Iran under its nuclear program were lifted on January 16, 2016, it
should be noted that Iran remains punished in various ways (human rights,
terrorism, dual purpose). As such, it is advisable for companies interested in
the Iranian market to ensure that the proposed transaction (nature, customers,
intermediaries and financial circuit, goods and services offered for sale)
complies with the European regulations in force. . With this in mind, i
With a GDP of 377 billion USD in 2016,
Iran was ranked 29th in the world economies. Its 80 million inhabitants (of
whom 41% are under 25 years old and 73% urban) make it the largest market in
the Middle East by size. GDP per capita was USD 4700 in 2016 (USD 18 100 in
PPP) and the human development index was 0.774 (69th in the world).
While Iran has the world's fourth-largest
proven oil reserves and the first proven gas reserves, the dependence of its
economy on the oil and gas sector remains strong. However, with its industrial
base (automobile, cement, iron and steel, mining, pharmaceuticals, etc.), Iran
is one of the most diversified economies in the region.
At the macroeconomic level, Iran
experienced a cumulative contraction of its real GDP of 8.5% over the fiscal
years 2012/2013 and 2013/2014 under the effect of the reinforced sanctions put
in place from 2012. After an ephemeral rebound in 2014/2015 (+ 4.0%), growth
was again negative (-1.6%) in 2015/2016. On the other hand, 2016/2017 was the
year of the rebound. According to the latest IMF forecasts, real GDP growth has
reached 6.5% in full-year terms. This increase in activity is mainly due to the
faster than expected recovery in production and exports of crude oil (Iran has
regained its levels of crude exports before the introduction of increased
sanctions), linked directly to the lifting of international sanctions.
The current recovery, however, may become less intense as oil
production approaches its theoretical ceiling. Its durability will depend in
particular on the implementation of structural reforms (improvement of the
business environment, sustainable exchange rate consolidation, consolidation of
the banking sector, etc.).
Due to the tightening of international
sanctions, our trade with Iran has collapsed in the last 10 years, reduced to
515 MEUR in 2014 while they amounted to 3.7 billion EUR in 2004. For the first
time since In 2010, they rose again in 2015, driven by the growth of our
exports (+ 24% to 562 MEUR). This restart was made thanks to the good
performance of our sales of pharmaceutical products and medical equipment. The
recovery of our exchanges grew in 2016 (+ 235% year-on-year). This trend is the
result of the good performance of our exports (+ 28% to 722 MEUR), but
especially of the very strong growth of our imports (+ 2000% to 1.4 billion
EUR) thanks to the resumption of our kidnappings. crude oil made possible by
the lifting of sanctions. In the first half of 2017, our exports were up 162%
year-on-year.
The economic and financial situation of
Iran
While the lifting of the reinforced
sanctions that took place on 16 January 2016 had not had the time to produce
its effects on the 2015/2016 financial year (21 March 2015/20 March 2016) which
ended with negative growth ( -1.6%), 2016/2017 was the year of the rebound.
According to the latest IMF estimates, real GDP growth was 6.5% at the end of
the year. This sharp rise in activity is mainly due to the faster than expected
recovery in crude oil production and exports, which have almost returned to
pre-sanction levels. It should result in a consolidation of the current account
surplus and a return of the budget balance to positive territory by the end of
the 2017/2018 fiscal year, in a context of rising oil prices. Inflation
continued its downward trend that began in 2013 and remained below 10% in
2016/2017.
Post a Comment